Still here

Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here. I plan on blogging the upcoming season, even if it’s just a post or two a month. I’ll probably check out the recruiting landscape sometime soon, and check back in here.

Thanks for dropping in!

Sheehan’s bubble

Joe Sheehan takes a look at who’s on the bubble at Basketball Prospectus. The guy obviously knows his stuff, but I’m not sure if I agree with his Big East bubble teams.

His BE locks are (with KenPom ratings in parenthesis): UCONN (3), Louisville (8), Pitt (4), Villanova (20), Marquette (23), Syracuse (21), and West Virginia (9).

Bubble: Georgetown (24), Providence (76), and Notre Dame (36).

I don’t have a problem with Georgetown and Notre Dame, but why Providence and not Cincy? Providence’s rating is 76 and UC’s is 82 (Seton Hall is also right there are 78).

I think it’s safe to say that the selection committee probably relies more on RPI, but 1) KenPom ratings are probably better and 2) I don’t believe there’s any way I can access RPI online for free. Anyway, let’s do a little comparison, Providence vs. Cincy, using KenPom’s great data:

Teams	Cincinnati	Providence
Record	18-13	18-12
BE record	8-10	10-8
SOS	29	46
vs. KenPom top 50	5-9	3-7
vs. KenPom top100	7-12	6-11
Offensive rating	64 (ncaa rank)	43
Defensive rating	106	129

It looks to me like the two teams are pretty equal. The advantages for the Friars is their slightly better overall and BE record and their two wins against the Bearcats. The advantages for UC is a slightly better SOS and (again, slightly) better performance against top teams.

The point is not that one team is better than the other; just that, if one of them is considered a bubble team, they both should be.

Fun night of college hoops

Right now you’ve got College of Charlestown vs. Chattanooga on espn (it’s 63-51, Chattanooga; a mild upset in the making). Despite being 26-7, Charlestown isn’t a huge favorite, as their SOS is 314th in the country, according to KenPom. Chattanooga is 17-16, but has a 236 SOS, making them a bit stronger than they appear, relative to C of C. Anyway, it is a must win for both teams, and it looks like Chatt. is going to the NCAA tournament.

On espn2, Virginia Commonwealth is headed for a victory over George Mason, as they lead 53-37 with about six minutes to play. These were the two premier teams in the CAA, though it looks like George Mason is going home with this lose (KenPom rating of 86).

Western Kentucky and North Texas are locked in a close battle to decide the Sun Belt Conference (edit: Duh, this wasn't the conference championship ...). Western Kentucky is the better team (104 rating; North Texas is at 160), but it’s obviously a must win for both teams.

Let me add that I know there are other tournaments, outside of the NCAAs, that some of these teams will be eligible for. So when I say “must win,” I’m assuming everyone is shooting for the NCAA tourney.

Later on, you’ve got the two marquee games, imo.`Patty Mills is back in action for St. Mary’s (51 rating), as they take on WCC (and national) powerhouse Gonzaga. Mills is having another fine year, shooting 48% from two point range, 36% from three, and averaging 18.4 points a game. His return is certainly big, as he came back last night against Portland, but make no mistake, this St. Mary’s team has a very good supporting cast, led by Omar Somhan (his offensive rating is ranked 109th, block percentage 93rd, and offensive rebound% 17th in the nation, all by KenPom). St. Mary’s probably has an outside chance of getting in the tourney with a loss, but I’m sure they’d rather not leave it in the hands of the committee.

The other game is Siena against Niagara in Albany (Siena’s home court). The teams line up back-to-back in Pomeroy’s ratings, Niagara 68th and Siena 69th. Both teams have tourney hopes with a loss, but both desperately want the win. Like I mentioned, Siena’s at home, where they are very good.

Alright, alright, a few predictions … just for fun:

St. Mary’s beats Gonzaga 78-75
Siena beats Niagara 88-83

Check in later tonight to make fun of those …

Collapse, 2009 edition

Over the last three years, Cincinnati has collapsed, in some way or another, down the home stretch of the season. Sure, part of it is switching from a much easier non-conference schedule to Big East play, but part of it is also, well, ugly basketball.

In 2007 (the 06-07 season), UC started out 9-3 and had quality wins against teams like Xavier and NC State. They looked like a decent team. After that start, however, they went 2-16 the rest of the way and lost 11 of their last 12 games.

Last year’s team was sitting at 13-12, coming off a nice three game winning streak. They did not win again, and finished the year 13-19.

This year’s collapse, if you wish to call it that, was much more of a quick, punch in the gut, than a long, drawn out string of poor performance. Again, after a three game winning streak, the wins coming against Notre Dame, Georgetown, and St. Johns, the Bearcats sat at 17-8 (7-5 in the BE) and were in prime position to make the NCAA tournament. They lost back to back tough games against Pitt and Louisville, but came back to get a big win against Bobby Huggins’ West Virginia team. Then UC lost the final three against Syracuse, South Florida, and Seton Hall, making an at large bid extremely unlikely. Losing five out of the final six just isn’t going to cut it.

The good news is that we’ve still got the Big East tourney left this year. The 2007 and 2008 seasons are over : ) UC will face the #16 seed DePaul, who went winless in conference play, on Tuesday. Assuming a win there, a solid Providence team is up next. Then it’s number one seed Louisville. To really reestablish a possibility of an at-large bid, I think Cincy has to win those first three games, and that is no easy task. Heck, if we get that far, we may as well just win the final two games and get the automatic berth.

The other good news is that we should be happy that we’re disappointed with an 18-13 season. Cincinnati was expected to play much worse than they did this year, and I think progress is being made. If you look at Pomeroy’s ratings over the last three years, you can see it:

2007: 113
2008: 98
2009: 81

It may be slow, but it’s progress. If you trust Pomeroy’s ratings, this team picked up a lot of good wins: UNLV (57), UAB (38), Georgetown twice (24), Notre Dame (36), and West Virginia (9).

Anyway, while I’m upset with the regular season finish, we can salvage things -- to a degree anyway -- with a good tournament performance. I’m looking forward to that.

Two crucial home games

Obviously, at this point of this season, every game is critical. But I think that, the next two home games vs. Louisville and West Virginia, really stand out. If UC can win one of these two, they have a great chance of making the NCAA tournament, imo.

They will both be tough games; Pomeroy has Louisville ranked 16th in the country and WV 6th. But I think there’s a decent chance the Bearcats can pull off a win.

Anyway, since we’ve last chatted, UC has beat Notre Dame at home, Georgetown on the road, St. Johns at home, and lost to Pitt on the road. You had to figure winning two out of those four would have been impressive; three is just great.

Cincy now has some real quality wins to hang their hat on:

@ #47 UNLC
#41 UAB
#21 Georgetown
#37 Notre Dame
@ #21 Georgetown

The worst loss is a respectable one –  #71 Providence at home.

UC’s NCAA tourney hopes rest on two things: one, how they perform in their final five games and the BE tourney. Two, how the committee evaluates the likes of Georgetown and Notre Dame, very good teams that have less-than-spectacular records.

It is a toss up at this point, whether UC will be dancing or not. But, let’s face it, nobody expected to even be thinking about it this year.

Shots per minute

I continue my consistently inconsistent blogging with a look at shots per minute. That’s simply shots per minute played and it gives us a decent look at who is most likely to pull the trigger when they’re on the floor. In the table below, along with shots per minute, I’ll also list shots per 40 minutes, which puts things into perspective a little bit:

Player	Shots/min	Shots/40
Gates	.42	16.6
Vaughn	.36	14.5
Mitchell	.34	13.5
Davis	.31	12.2
Dixon	.30	12.1
Williams	.26	10.5
McClain	.25	9.8
Bishop	.22	9
Wilks	.17	6.7
Toyloy	.16	6.3

I left of Miller, but for the sake of completeness, he shoots .38 shots per minute, which is like 15 per 40 (though he has only played 32 mins).

In a perfect world, the guys who shoot most often would also be the best shooters. Let’s take a look. To measure shooting, we’ll use effective field goal %, which adjusts for the three point shot: fg + (.5* 3pt fg)/fg att

Yancy Gates’ eFG% is essentially his actual fg% because he’s shot only four threes all year. It’s at 49.4%, good for fourth on the team, and ahead of everyone with substantial playing time, outside of Toyloy.

Vaughn’s eFG% is right behind Gates’ at 49%. So far, no problems.

Alvin Mitchell, who shoots a three 70% of the time, has an eFG% of 47.8%. Larry Davis, another three point specialist, is at 45.7%. Dion Dixon, the third straight long range threat, is at 43%, or last on the team. In defense of Dixon, he’s shot 41% over the last seven games and looks to be a better shooter than his early numbers would indicate.

Mike Williams has an eFG% of 48%, just behind Gates and Vaughn. McClain doesn’t play too much, but shoots a ridiculous 69% from the field. Bishop’s eFG% is a decent 46.3. Wilks is a solid 53.4%, but like McClain, doesn’t see a lot of playing time.

Toyloy, who rarely shoots, is at an impressive 60%, as that is what he’s shot on the year (all 2 pointers).

Okay, so this is easy; Toyloy is the second best shooter on the team, by eFG%, so make him shoot more! Not so fast; Toyloy’s shooting percentage is high because he shoots a lot of very makeable shots. He only pulls the trigger when he has a good chance of scoring. On the other hand, someone like Gates or Vaughn, take many more difficult shots. So, if Toyloy was all the sudden asked to shoot as much as those guys, his field goal percentage would almost certainly go down, as he’d no longer be able to wait for an “easy” shot.

That’s why it’s not so cut and dry as to how often players should shoot. Replacing Vaughn’s, Davis’, Dixon’s, and Mitchell’s threes with more shots by Toyloy and McClain makes sense on paper, but probably wouldn’t work so well in real games.

It appears to me that, in general, the Bearcats are doing a decent job distributing their shots to their better scorers. It’s not like we’ve got a guy who is a poor shooter, who is getting the most shots on the team. Williams may want to shoot more often, Dixon and Davis a little less. Working in some more shots for some of the role players, like McClain and Toyloy, may also be a good idea.

Escaping Eastern Kentucky

This was really a fun game to watch. Yeah, yeah, Cincy shouldn't have struggled so much with Eastern Kentucky. No, they shouldn't have, but I still prefer a win over a loss, thank you very much.

What do these numbers tell ya?

UC
2 pt fg%: 47%
2 pt fga: 34

3 pt fg%:30.6%
3 pt fga: 36

Believe or not, the answer might not be the obvious one. Cincy scored .94 points per shot on 2 point field goals and .92 pps on 3s. There's really nothing there that says they should have shot more 2s; they were equally effective inside and outside the arc.

Now, I realize that's an extremely simplified analysis that doesn't take into account many things, but I thought it was sorta interesting nonetheless. During the game, I really felt UC had the advantage inside and that they should start pounding it in there more often. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe not.

Any way you look at it, the big men inside won this one for the Cats, mainly due to a 45-26 rebounding advantage. Mike Williams had a great game with 13 points (on just 7 fga) and 16 bounds (9 offensive!). Big Yancy gates had 17 and 8.

Deonta Vaughn, despite shooting 5 of 13 from the field, had a nice all-around game. He scored 20 and dished out 7 assists (with just 2 turnovers; overall, UC took care of the ball with just 10 team turnovers).

Sure, it should have been easier, but I'll take the W ... and the exciting finish!

***

Since I posted last after the win vs. UNLV Cincinnati has:

beat UAB 87-80
lost to Xavier 76-66
beat Charleston Southern 74-55
beat Miss. State 75-63

They are now 9-2, and ranked 49th in the country by Pomeroy (not counting tonight's performance). Pomeroy's model expects them to go 19-12, which is probably bubble territory. It's fun to be back into contention, although we can't forget UC was 8-3 two years ago at this point, and stumbled to an 11-19 season. 11 non-conference games don't always tell ya everything. But thing's are definitely looking better.

***

Regarding the blog, if anyone is still here, expect things to continue to be sporadic and relatively inactive. Thanks for stoppin' by, though!

UC 67, UNLV 65

Coming off the loss to Florida State, this is a very good win for Cincinnati. Basketball Prospectus 2009 predicts UNLV to go 13-3 in the Mountain West and Vegas had them favored by ~6 tonight (oh, yeah, they were also playing in Veges ... where they are usually pretty tough).

If you were to look at the box score without looking at the final score, it'd probably be tough to pick out the winner. Here's a comparison:

FG% on 2-point fgs
UC: 41%
UNLV: 43%

FG% on 3-point fgs
UC: 36%
UNLV: 30%

Rebounds
UC: 36
UNLV: 34

Assists
UC: 14
UNLC: 13

TO
UC: 15
UNLV: 12

Okay, you get the point. There really isn't an area of the game that jumps out and says ... "that's why we won this game." Well, maybe there is, but it isn't really in the box score (and I didn't watch/listen to the game -- I've heard that's helpful in determining these things : ). Anyway, it really makes you (me, anyway) think about the almighty win. Does Cincinnati really deserve 100% of a win and UNLV 0% of one? Shouldn't it be more like 55/45 or something? Okay, those aren't really questions. Just remember that when we're talking about "win shares" in college hoops in like 2022, you heard it here first!

Anyway, there were about 70 possessions in this one. That's .96 points per possession and .93 allowed for Cincy. When the differential is on the plus side vs. a solid team, you'll take it. Some random notes:

• Deonta Vaughn led the team in points and assists (16 and 6) ... but he had a pretty bad game. He shot 5-19 from the floor and had 7 turnovers. A simple way to illustrate his struggles: Vaughn scored .84 points per shot. The rest of the Bearcats scored 1.1 points per shot. Redistribute Vaughn's shots to his teammates and Cincinnati would have scored like 5 more points in the game. Okay, not really. It's a team game and you can't just do that, but (hopefully) you get my point.

• Larry Davis also did not have a good one. 0-10 from the floor doesn't need much of an explanation.

• On the plus side, Yancy Gates had 16 points (7-10 fg-fga) and 7 rebounds in 19 minutes. Dion Dixon also had a good one, scoring 13 points on just 7 shots.

I'm really super-impressed with this win, despite the random nitpicks in my "recap." Next up is another big test against UAB on December 6th.

167?

I was going to make a short post about VMI's 133 point night vs Stevensen, but then I scrolled down a bit more and saw ... Texas Tech, 167, East Central 115. There were ~122 possessions in this one. I don't know what the record is, but that's crazy. The average per game is like 65-70. Anyway, that's 1.37 pts/poss. (137 per 100). Or it's like 96 points for a 70 possession game, a normal pace. So, yeah, they were very efficient offensively, but you can see the kind of effect pace has on a team's final score. Tech had 18 turnovers, which is pretty bad at first glance. Again, this is an area where tempo-free stats can help us out. They had only .15 TO per poss. -- that's 15 per 100 possessions, a well above average number.

Back to the VMI game real quick. There were about 101 possessions in the game. VMI scored 133, so that's 1.32 per poss. Check out Chavis Holmes' line: 21 pts, 9 rebs, 4 asts, 5 stls, 4 blks, 8-13 fg-fga ... all in 21 minutes!

Crazy stuff ....

Rollin' past Texas Southern

Both teams had about 70 possessions in this one. Cincinnati scored 82 points, or about 117 points per 100 possessions (that's just about as efficient as they were in their game vs. South Dakota). They allowed 51 points, or about 73 per 100. Again, a pretty dominant performance.

Individually, the standout was probably Alvin Mitchell, who scored 15 points on just 8 shots and 22 minutes on the floor. He went 4-7 from three and 3-4 from the line. Deonta Vaughn had a solid all around game with 12 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds in a team-leading 31 minutes. Other good performers:

Dion Dixon: 4 pts, 5 ast, 10 reb, 19 mins
Steve Toyloy: 11 pts, 7 reb, 5-5 fg-fga, 19 mins

The only real negatives from the Bearcats' side were the 17 turnovers and poor shooting from the line (12-21, 57%).

FWIW, Big East teams are like 24-2 so far this year.