24-7

Cincinnati finished up the regular season by pounding Georgetown (for the second time this season) 69-47 on Saturday. The win brought Cincinnati’s record to 24-7, and 11-7 in the Big East (tied for sixth with West Virginia). Cincinnati is currently ranked 17th by Ken Pomeroy, fifth highest in the BE.

While the Bearcats non-conference schedule was very weak, their overall SOS was 64th (again, according to KenPom). Going 24-7 against the 64th ranked schedule in the country is certainly reason to be optimistic about where this team is right now, and where this program might be going in the future. Not a bad year.

Unlike the last couple of seasons, Cincinnati won’t have to sweat out selection Sunday, as they should be comfortably positioned regardless of the Big East tournament. As a little tribute to a tremendous season, here are Cincy’s best wins:

Opponent	KenPom Rank	Score
Seton Hall	56	70-53
Xavier	36	66-46
@St. Johns	31	53-51
Louisville	13	63-54
@Georgetown	28	58-46
@Marquette	34	67-60
Georgetown	28	69-47

I’m looking forward to post-season play!

Big win at St. Johns

Probably like you, I’ve been cautiously optimistic in following the Cincinnati Bearcats this year. Yes, they are 17-3, but their schedule hasn’t been great and, in past years, fast starts have culminated in ugly late-season performance. I do feel a little bit different about this team, though.

I mean, no, they aren’t a top ten team. They’ve shown so far that they aren’t quite good enough to beat the Syracuse’s, the Villanova’s, even the Notre Dame’s on the road. With that said, this Bearcats team has shown that they’re good enough to beat everyone they’re expected to beat (including the likes of Xavier, @St. Johns, Seton Hall, Dayton, @Oklahoma), which is no small feat.

St. Johns isn’t an elite team either, but winning in their building is still a quality road victory. The Red Storm have already beat Northwestern, Georgetown, and Notre Dame at home, not to mention West Virginia and Providence on the road.

Cincinnati seems to have some issues opening games (as well as after the halftime break), falling behind St. Johns early but taking a six point lead to the half, only to give it right back in the second half. It took a clutch three-point play from Yancy Gates to put the finishing touches on a narrow win.

The Cats won the game because they, like usual, played good, solid defense and outrebounded St. Johns. They got help on the line as well, as St. Johns shot a pathetic 12-26 on free throws. Outside of Gates, who had a nice second half after a non-existent first, Justin Jackson provided some quality play, scoring eight and grabbing six boards in 29 minutes.

Backup big man Anthony McClain also did good work (four points, six rebounds), though inexplicably (at least to me) got only eight minutes of court time. The Senior center has developed into a pretty solid player, and I think he deserves more minutes. He has good hands and passing ability underneath, and he plays solid defense and is a presence on the glass.

If anything, this is a very deep team. There are no superstars, no go-to guys (besides maybe Gates, at times), but on any night there are a number of players that can really contribute, and if guys like Jackson and McClain can pitch in solid minutes, that’s all the better.

Think about it, Cincinnati got little production from Dion Dixon, Ibrahima Thomas, and Sean Kilpatrick, all regular contributors, and Cashmere Wright had a season-high eight turnovers while Rashad Bishop went 2-11 from the floor, and they still got a nice road win. It’s fun to think about the possibilities if everyone is hitting on high cylinders.

We have a basketball team here

As usual, it’s taken me a little while to get into the college hoops season, especially with the way the last few years have concluded for the Cincinnati Bearcats. This year, I’ll admit, I was very skeptical after uninspiring wins against the likes of Mount St. Mary’s, IUPU Fort Wayne, and Savannah State. Since the early shakiness, however, Cincinnati has done all you can expect, absolutely destroying a decent Dayton team and now rolling over Oklahoma (sandwiched between routs of Wright State, Utah Valley, and Georgia Southern.

Admittedly, the strength of schedule has been laughably weak (even Dayton and Oklahoma, the two marquee wins, are no Goliaths), but Cincy has done just about all you can ask on the court. The offense still hasn’t been great, but the defense has been very strong. Regardless of the competition, you know you’re doing something right when you play ten straight games against D-1 competition winning by ten points or more in every one of them. edit: not sure what I was talking about here, there were a couple within ten.

The real challenge – the Big East conference schedule – is still to come, not to mention non-conference games against Miami of Ohio and Xavier. Still, UC has set themselves up nicely by taking care of business, and if they finish anywhere near Pomeroy’s projections (22-9, 10-8 BE) the NCAA tourney will, for once, be a lock. Games are played on the court, of course, but I have to say – hesitantly -- that I’m just a little bit excited to see how this one unfolds.

Replacement level in college basketball

In baseball, the concept of replacement level, popularized in the 1990s by the likes of Keith Woolner (now working for the Cleveland Indians), has developed into the standard way to evaluate players. Arguably, the main reason for using replacement level is to balance rate stats and counting stats, and to provide an accurate assessment of a player’s total marginal contribution to his team.

If you use average as the baseline to rate player performance, then it looks like an average player has no value. We know that an average player does, in fact, have value. A team of average players should win 50% of their games. What we really want to compare a player’s performance to is some baseline below average, preferably at the theoretical replacement level.

Though there is still much debate in the baseball analysis community over how to precisely define replacement level, the overall idea is relatively simple. Here’s a basic definition of replacement level, offered by Woolner (linked above):

Replacement level is the *expected* level of performance the average team can obtain if it needs to replace a starting player at minimal cost.

Here’s a basketball-specific example:

Player	Points/game	Games
Player A	20	25
Player B	15	40

Obviously, using points is simplistic, but the numbers are for illustration purposes only. So, which player is more valuable? Let’s assume a replacement level player scores 5 points a game. In a 40 game season, Player B, playing in every game, provided 15 points/per. However, player A only played in 25 games, so we have to add in 15 games of replacement level production (5 points/game). His new average is 14.4. Or we could say Player B is 400 points better than replacement level (a RL player would score 400 points less, in the same number of games) , and Player A is 375 points above replacement level. Same thing. So, these two players, with different levels of playing time and performance, are basically equal.

But how do we truly define replacement level in basketball? As we have discussed before, basketball analysis is not baseball analysis, for a variety of reasons (most notably, they are different sports!). And, more specifically, college basketball is not NBA basketball.

In the NBA, when a player goes down mid-season, the organization has many options on how to replace that player. They can elect to do it entirely with players already on the roster, simply changing playing time and/or positions around. Or they can go out and look at available free agents or players in the D-League. Trades are also a possibility. In college basketball, once the recruiting period is over and the season has begun, teams are essentially restricted to playing out the season with their roster.

So, we are left with (at least )two questions. How do we define replacement level in basketball? And, specifically to college hoops, how do we apply this concept? Should replacement level be the expected performance of the last player on the bench, or the best player on the campuses club team? These questions are not easy, but if we are able to define replacement level in college basketball, we can gain a better understanding of player value.

Spam – Not good in any form

I just noticed that the comments section of this blog has been flooded with spam. Nothing worse than poking around a blog, only to see it filled with spam.

I have now enabled comment moderation, which means I’ll have to moderate any comment before it appears on the site. This is not a big deal, as this blog has received a total of about five comments. Please, my fellow humans – no spam-bots allowed! – I encourage you to comment on any posts, whenever you have something to add. I have not been posting much recently, as you have probably noticed, but hopefully that will change.

Thanks,
Bearcat Blogger

Goodbye, Lance

It has been a while since I’ve written here – the spammers have let me know, flooding the comments section. It has also been a while since I’ve diligently followed the Bearcats, as my interests have given way to baseball, school, and other “priorities.”

Apparently, Lance Stephenson is not returning, as he will enter the NBA draft and has hired an agent. Stephenson had an interesting season with Cincinnati, at times dazzling with his superior athleticism and understanding of the game, while at other times playing a non-factor.

Overall, Stephenson averaged 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 28 minutes a game. He averaged 2.4 turnovers and one steal per game, while shooting .440 from the field, .664 from the line, and an ugly .219 from three (he shot 50% on 2pt FGs).

While Stephenson’s presence will undoubtedly be missed, note this nugget: His effectiveFG% of 46.2% was below the team average of 47.6% (neither figures particularly good, by the way), and Lance shot a team-leading 26% of the time while on the court. He is going to be missed, but his shoes are not impossible to fill.

Best of luck in the NBA, Lance.

Heartbreak city

I really don't know what to say after a loss like that.

I mean, there are a lot of things to be said -- some good, some bad -- but I don't think I could put them into comprehensible sentences right now.

I don't understand what Dion Dixon was doing, but I feel for the kid. Hopefully it's something he can build on positively, both in his basketball career and his life.

Yeah .... what a tough loss. It's amazing how quickly all of the hope and optimism -- for a huge win and a realistic shot at the NCAA tournament -- can go out the window in a matter of six seconds. What a helpless feeling it is to watch it unravel.

Stephenson staying?

I missed Bill Koch's piece from a few weeks ago, but in it Lance Stephenson says:

“I think I’m going to stay and keep working,” Stephenson said. “I don’t think I’ve had an NBA season this year so the best choice for me is to stay.”

In what has been another dismal finish to a season, finally some good news. Getting an extra year of Lance Stephenson is at least some consolation for what could be another lost season. Stephenson has shown flashes of brilliance to go along with plenty of freshman struggles. It's definitely fun to think about how good he might be this time next year, hopefully still here at Cincinnati.

On the year, he's averaged 12/5/2.4 in 28 minutes a game. He's shooting 44% from the field, but just under 20% on threes. His 98 Offensive Rating is fifth on the Bearcats.

Cash money

Cashmere Wright scored a career-high 24 points (on 9-11 shooting) to spark Cincinnati to a 92-88 win over Providence on Saturday night. Wright also recorded five assists, no turnovers, three steals, and four rebounds.

Cincinnati's offense, in general, was tremendous all night, scoring 92 points in 79 possessions. They shot 57% from the field, and 44% (8-18) from three-point range. They did, however, struggle at the line again, with an embarrassing 20-41 performance that allowed Providence to make a game of it late.

Rashad Bishop went 3-3 from deep, scoring 16 points on nine shots. He also added six rebounds. Lance Stephenson quietly had a solid game with 12 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Deonta Vaughn scored just 12 points on eight shots, and went 5-10 at the line (where he had been shooting nearly 90% all year).

The Providence defense is 15th in the Big East, according to Pomeroy's ratings, so it is not surprising that Cincy had a great night offensively (though it's still very encouraging). Conversely, their offense is very talented, ranking 27th in the country. After making their first six three pointers, though, they went just 7-28 from beyond the arc the rest of the night.

What we saw on Saturday night was not a familiar sight : a fast-paced, high scoring game that Cincinnati clearly took control of. The defense was not up to par, but offensively they showed that they can win a shootout.

Can ya say offense?

Cincinnati rolled over South Florida earlier tonight, 78-70. Sure, they only won by eight points, but for the most part they controlled the game, maintaining a ~ten point advantage throughout the second half.

The offense finally came to life, as Cincy shot 56% overall and 36% from beyond the arc. They were led by the sharp shooting of Deonta Vaughn (20 points on 10 field goals), Rashad Bishop (15 pts/11 fgs), and Jaquon Parker (15 pts/8fgs). Those three also combined for 12 rebounds, 12 assists, and only 2 turnovers.

Yancy Gates played only 10 minutes due to foul trouble, but did score 8 points and grab 2 bounds. Lance Stephenson did not play because of a sore ankle.

The offensive efficiency is promising because South Florida is a pretty solid defense, 50th in the nation in Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency. Cincinnati shot the three ball relatively well in the first half, hitting 4 of 11 from long range, but what you have to like is that, despite that, they went inside in the second half. They shot 14-21 on two point point field goals in the second half, and only attempted 3 threes. They also got to the line 14 times (though only converted on 6 of those attempts).

Overall, it was nice to see some solid offensive play, mixing the occasional three point attempt with some easy buckets down low. The defense was not quite up to par, but tonight, for once, the offense picked up the slack.

From the Big Win Department

In a tie game, Deonta Vaughn lobbed a pass to Yancy Gates in the final moments; Gates missed his first attempt, but followed successfully with just over two seconds to play. Notre Dame’s desperation shot hit the net, and UC got a well earned, much needed victory, 60-58.

Cincinnati improves to 12-6 (3-3 BE) on the year, while the Irish fall to 14-4 (3-2). Coming into the game Notre Dame was ranked 71st in the country by Pomeroy, and the Bearcats 55th. The game featured a big contrast in strengths, with ND’s high powered offense (4th, by Pomeroy) squaring off against Cincy’s strong defense (32nd).

The Bearcats held the Irish to 46% from two point range, and 29% from three. On the year, they were shooting 53% on twos and 43% on threes. The Cats forced Luke Harangody into eating up way too many ND possessions, as he shot 20 times (plus 2-6 on free throws), and turned it over 4 times, while managing to score just 14 points. UC also controlled the glass 50-31, led by 13 rebounds from Yancy Gates.

The only negative from this game, and it’s a pretty big one, is the offense. Against a terrible defense, ranked 237th in the country, Cincy shot just 32% in the game, and 24% from deep. That’s just ugly. The free-throw shooting was improved (13-18) and they only turned it over eight times, but they have to find a way to generate some offense.

Overall, though, this is a very big win obviously. South Florida, up next.

Bump in the road or annual collapse?

If you look at the Mick Cronin Era, it is not hard to spot at least one trend. His Cincinnati teams tend to start hot, and finish poorly. Now the composition of the schedule, with many cupcakes coming early in the season and Big East clashes coming later, undoubtedly has something to do with this. But it is interesting to note, nonetheless:

2006-07: 9-3 start, 2-16 finish
2007-08: 13-12 start, 0-7 finish
2008-09: 10-2 start, 8-12 finish

This year’s team was at one point 10-3, with three very impressive wins over Maryland, Vanderbilt, and Connecticut. Now, just four games later, they site at 11-6, losing games to Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, and St. Johns.

These next two games, home contests against Notre Dame and South Florida, both beatable but tough teams, may play a big role in deciding how this season will finish up. After this short two game home stand, Cincy has a slew of difficult games remaining on the schedule, including at Louisville, at Notre Dame, Syracuse, at UCONN, at South Florida, Marquette, at West Virginia, Villanova, and at Georgetown. Welcome to Big East basketball. There are really no “easy” games remaining, outside of maybe DePaul.

UC routed by UAB, rolls over Limpscomb

The game at UAB set up as a trap for Cincinnati, coming off a hard-fought loss to rival Xavier, and against a solid team with a great home court advantage (UAB is 33-2 at home since the 2007-‘08 season). They lost 64-47.

It is easier to look at the positives for the Cats, then to look at what they did bad (mostly everything). They played solid defense, holding UAB to a 39% mark from the field and forcing 19 turnovers.

Offensively, Cincy was terrible, scoring just 47 points in 69 possessions. They shot 32% from the field, 14% on threes, and had 17 turnovers of their own.

Deonta Vaughn continued his shooting struggles, making just two of nine shots (1-7 on threes). He also had five turnovers and just two assists, but did add seven rebounds. Yancy Gates was also contained, scoring just seven points while collecting six boards. Cincinnati was dominated on the glass overall, losing the rebounding battle 47-34.

****

On Saturday, Cincinnati rolled over Limpscomb 80-52. The Beatcats shot the ball well, hitting on 54% of their shots from the field (39% from three). Cincy’s defense was great, holding a solid offense (ranked 96th in the country by KenPom) to 29% from the field, and 52 points in 69 possessions.

Lance Stephenson lead the way from UC, scoring 19 points on just 11 shots, adding five assists without a turnover. Ibrahima Thomas logged a solid 18 minute effort for the Cats (after looking shaky, to say the least, in his debut against Xavier), scoring ten points (4-5 shooting) and picking up six rebounds. Rashad Bishop did not miss in five shots (three from deep) and scored 13.

Yancy Gates played just four minutes, apparently due to a lack of effort. Cincinnati takes on Winthrop on Tuesday.

What is wrong with Vaughn?

If you look at Deonta Vaughn’s raw numbers, he looks like a player in decline. He debuted as a freshman averaging 14.5 points a game, and peaked in his sophomore year at just over 17. This year, his senior season, his average is just under 11 points a game, his career low. However, is he really playing worse basketball?

Kenpom.com updated its individual player stats page today, so let’s take a closer look at the numbers:

YR	%Mins	ORtg	%Shots	eFG%	DR%	ARate	TORate	2pt%	3pt%
FR	82	100	29	45	10	25	17	47	29
SO	83	110	28	56	9	31	21	49	40
JR	89	105	24	49	11	27	23	47	34
SR	66	114	20	50	15	30	18	53	33

(edit: these stats don’t include the Xavier game)

Most of the stats in the table are explained here.

So, what do we make of the above numbers? The first thing that stands out is Deonta’s decline in minutes so far this year, compared to the rest of his career at UC. Deonta has always been the go-to guy, needed on the court at all times for Cincy to have a chance (or, precisely, about 85% of the time). This year, however, with an improved supporting cast, and scorers like Lance Stephenson on the floor, Deonta does not have to log as many minutes.

He is also shooting the ball less. His %shots (percentage of team shots while on the floor) has actually declined since his freshman year – his worst shooting year, percentage wise – and this year it is down to 20%. This coincides with point one; that there are currently more options on the floor than in the past.

Vaughn’s best shooting% year was indeed his sophomore campaign, but he’s actually shooting just as well this year as he did last year, and well better than his freshman year. He’s also posting career-best rebounding marks, grabbing 15% of possible defensive boards while on the court, a solid number for a 6-1 guard.

It looks like moving off the point has also helped his game. His assist rate has remained high despite playing a lot at shooting guard, giving way to Cashmere Wright at the point, and his turnover rate has dropped. If Vaughn can recapture the three-point shooting touch of his sophomore season, he could be absolutely lethal for this team. But even as it is now, he is still very productive, and any talk of deteriorating skills or production are probably premature.

Deonta Vaughn’s rate stats appear to be in decline, and in some ways, they are. But he is adjusting to his new role on this team, and he is arguably playing better basketball than he has played in the past.

*I should note, as a huge caveat, it is always dangerous to rely too much on early season stats. They certainly do not tell the whole story eight games into the season.

Cannot shoot free throws

Cincinnati was shooting 63% from the line coming into tonight’s game against Xavier, good for 301st in the nation. Tonight, that number went down. They shot 10-22 from the line, which clearly helped Xavier sneak by UC in two OTs. Seriously, that is unacceptable.

Other notes:

• Lance Stephenson is awesome.
• This is a very solid basketball team.
• That is a very tough loss to stomach.

UC takes on Xavier

Cincinnati faces arguably their toughest challenge today, as they take on Xavier in the Crosstown Shootout (at the Cintas Center). Both teams have been relatively similar so far, by Pomeroy’s rating. Xavier is ranked 80th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 20th in defense. Cincy is ranked 143 on offense, but 28th defensively.

UC should get a bit of a test on the glass, with 6-9 Jason Love and 6-8 Jamel Mclean leading the way for Xavier (combining for 17 boards per game), but Cincy should still at least hold their own in rebounding.

I think the game will come down to how the Cats play from three-point land, both offensively and defensively. Cincy has shot just 29% from three so far, and they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 34% from long range. Xavier is ranked 7th in the country, knocking down 44.5% of their three point attempts. However, opponents shoot almost 36% against them.

If Cincinnati can finally knock down some threes, and if they can defend Xavier well on the perimeter (a tough task), they should be in great position to pull of a huge road win. If not, well, it could be a long night.

Either way, it will be a fun one tonight, as it always is when these two teams do battle. Let’s go Cincy!

Ranked

Cincinnati is ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 2006 (h/t: Bill Koch). That is a long time to go unranked, especially for a program with such a winning tradition. Followers of this blog may recall my apathetic take on the top 25 rankings, but hey, I’m not going to complain now : )

KenPom.com has Cincy rated as the 41st best team in the country, so it is not unreasonable that they are in the top 25. Not to mention, of course, the early ratings are pretty unreliable because of the small number of games played.

Anyway, tomorrow the Cats take on a Texas Southern team that is only 1-4 against Division 1 teams so far (3-4 overall). Their offense has been decent, however, ranking 117th in the country by Pomeroy’s Adjusted Efficiency, and lead by 39% shooting from beyond the arc. Cincinnati has struggled a bit defending the three (36% against) – so that is something to watch for.

Maui tested, Maui approved

Despite the disappointing loss to Gonzaga in the final (a great game, by the way), this was obviously a very good three game stretch for Cincinnati in Hawaii. They beat up on two very solid teams in Vanderbilt and Maryland, and were easily as good as the Zags in the finale.

For some perspective, last year kenpom.com had Vanderbilt ranked as the 77th best team in the country, Maryland at 54, and Gonzaga at 7. Gonzaga has lost some key players from last year’s team, but Vandy and Maryland returned most of their key players. Point being, these are good basketball teams.

The positives for Cincy so far have to be the overall toughness they’ve shown on defense and on the glass. Not counting tonight’s loss to Gonzaga, UC’s offensive rebounding percentage of 46% is 8th in the country (obviously, a small sample of four games). There’s a good amount of depth on this team and a lot of guys who can contribute on both sides of the floor.

That said, there’s still a lot to work on. The 3-point shooting so far has not been good, at around 28%. Also, Cincy has not done a good enough job going inside and getting to the free throw line, highlighted (lowlighted?) by tonight’s 5-11 performance from the line (Gonzaga was 16-23).

It is going to be fun to watch this team grow up together, though, with a good mix of talented youngsters like Stephenson and Wright joining experienced vets like Vaughn and Gates.

Panic time?

Hey, I’m back. Should have some time to blog this season.

I haven’t followed the offseason too closely, but I do know that Cashmere Wright is back, and that the Bearcats brought in a few highly regarded freshmen, and that valuable players like Deonta Vaughn and Yancy Gates are still here.

I also know that Cincy is trailing Prairie View A&M 33-22, with just over three minutes to play in the first half.

To answer my question in the title, I’m going to say “no.” Cincinnati should come alive here,the shots should start falling, and they should win this one running away. But this is definitely not the way you want to draw it up, opening against a SWAC team (albeit, a pretty good one) at home, and struggling big time.

We’ll see what happens here.

edit: Well, okay, Cincy has taken control of this one, and they now lead by nine with a couple mintues left in the game. What can ya say? Not an impressive win, but there isn't too much to gain from these games, either way. They did what they had to do in the second half, as both the offense and defense picked up.

Still here

Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here. I plan on blogging the upcoming season, even if it’s just a post or two a month. I’ll probably check out the recruiting landscape sometime soon, and check back in here.

Thanks for dropping in!